Will democracy defeat a despot?;

Toronto Star: April 03, 2008

Election could spell the end of Mugabe in ruined Zimbabwe

The bell finally seems to be tolling for Robert Gabriel Mugabe, as the party led by the octogenarian Zimbabwean strongman suddenly finds itself without
a parliamentary majority for the first time in nearly three decades.

The loss marks a critical and perhaps fatal blow for a man once seen as the hope of a troubled continent slowly freeing itself from the shackles of European
colonialism, but a politician now more widely regarded as an iron- fisted power monger who battered his opponents and presided over his country's economic
decline.

In recent years, it has seemed only a funeral would wrest Mugabe from the presidency of a beautiful and once prosperous land - prosperous by African standards
- a land that he himself ruined.

But yesterday, it was starting to appear that a democratic election, of all things, might finally serve as the mechanism to bring the despot down.

After four suspenseful days, a trickle of voting results released by Zimbabwe's electoral commission following Saturday's elections finally produced a clear
result, with Mugabe's long-ruling ZANU-PF party losing to the combined opposition, led by the Movement for Democratic Change, in the country's national
assembly.

But, days after the elections, there was still no word on the outcome of the crucial presidential race, which was held alongside the parliamentary vote.

Meanwhile, the 84-year-old Mugabe, who has run this land-locked southern African republic since 1980 when Zimbabwe won independence under majority rule,
has not been seen or heard in public since casting his ballot on Saturday.
Nonetheless, his sombre, bespectacled visage continued to glower down upon Zimbabweans from campaign banners and nearly ubiquitous official portraits, much
as it has done for decades.
Once the breadbasket of southern Africa, Zimbabwe in recent years has suffered a breathtaking economic collapse, and Mugabe, his policies, and his cronies
are widely held to blame, both for this country's financial misery and for its bleak human-rights record.
The opposition MDC insists its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has won the presidential contest, as well as the legislative vote, and yesterday released its
own figures, showing Tsvangirai besting Mugabe with 50.3 per cent of the presidential ballots cast against 43.8 per cent for the long-time ruler.
But a government spokesperson warned Mugabe's adversaries against drawing hasty conclusions.
"You are prejudging the election, aren't you?" Deputy Information Minister Brighton Matonga told a television interviewer yesterday. "It's not over until
it's over."
If no presidential candidate captures a majority of the ballots cast in Saturday's vote, a runoff between the top two candidates would have to be held within
three weeks.
Based on its own unofficial results, the MDC has claimed another vote isn't needed, but Tendai Biti, a party official, said yesterday the MDC would agree
to a second round if necessary. "We accept under protest," he said. "It's just a delaying of the inevitable."
As for the legislative contest, according to official results, the opposition won 109 seats in the country's 210-seat legislative chamber, versus 97 seats
for Mugabe's party and one for an independent candidate. Three seats must be decided in by-elections after candidates died or withdrew.
Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier welcomed the results.
"This opens a window of opportunity for real and significant democratic change in Zimbabwe," he said in a news release. "Specifically, we look to the new
Zimbabwean government to implement policy changes that will improve the human rights situation in Zimbabwe.
"Canada commends the Zimbabwean people, who have remained calm and peaceful in the face of inexplicable delays. We call upon Zimbabwe's leaders to seize
this critical opportunity for positive change in a manner that respects freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law."
Most Zimbabweans seemed to be taking the unfolding drama in stride yesterday, condemned as they are to a daily battle, trying their best to get by despite
their country's economic free-fall.
Inflation is reckoned to be spiralling at a breakneck annual pace of more than 100,000 per cent, as the central bank continues to churn out banknotes in
ever larger quantities and denominations, never mind that they become worthless almost as soon as they hit the streets.
At Greaterman's Department Store on Jason Moyo Ave. yesterday, a small tin of pilchards in tomato sauce was selling for 47 million Zimbabwe dollars. A can
of tinned beans cost 75 million. A bar of deodorant soap bore a price tag of 81 million. And a single apple would set you back by 25 million.
At the Clicks Health Home Beauty Store, a basic Phillips toaster could be yours for just 3.5 billion dollars.
Based on the black market exchange rate prevailing yesterday (it will be different today), a Canadian loonie was worth about 38 million Zimbabwean dollars.
Along Harare's First St. pedestrian mall, large queues formed all day near automated telling machines, as city-dwellers patiently waited to withdraw seemingly
vast quantities of currency.
One woman outside a branch of the ZB Bank on First St. said she meant to withdraw a cool half-billion dollars.
But how much is that? A little or a lot?

"It depends on your budget," she replied.

But a man in the same lineup quickly contradicted her.

"No, it's very little money," he said. "It's just for a day."

At yesterday's black-market rate, a half-billion Zimbabwe dollars were worth about $13.16 Canadian.

That won't go far, considering that the Drumstick Special at the Chicken Inn ("Luv Dat Chicken!") outlet was priced at 110 million Zimbabwe dollars yesterday.

Other queues formed on the basis of hearsay. About 50 people were lined up late yesterday outside the OK Supermarket because they had heard a rumour that
a delivery of wheat flour was expected soon.

"There hasn't been any flour for days," said one man in the lineup.

An hour later, there was still no flour, and yet the queue remained.

Mugabe blames the country's woes on economic sanctions imposed by Western nations, but outside observers and local opposition leaders say the former schoolteacher
and longtime freedom-fighter brought on Zimbabwe's misery through a succession of disastrous decisions, including the expropriation of white commercial
farmers - long the country's economic backbone - and a costly military adventure in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, among other financial fiascos.
With his party's now official loss in legislative elections, it seemed difficult to imagine Mugabe - who is widely believed to have manipulated elections
his way before - could now engineer a remotely credible victory in the presidential contest. After 28 years of unbroken and nearly dictatorial rule, it
seemed likely - though not yet certain - that the patriarch's days in power were finally numbered.
But the electoral commission's continuing silence on the results of the presidential vote was cause for concern and even alarm.

Oakland Ross